Documenting and understanding patterns of long-term ecological change
Global change remains a substantial and often unsettling challenge for the conservation and management of marine resources. Although typically framed as an exercise in peering into a crystal ball to understand the future, we often forget that we have already lived through many decades of climate-driven ecological change. Ecological patterns in the recent past provide an excellent opportunity to better understand both the types of ecological change that we might expect in the future along with the mechanistic underpinnings of these changes.
We plan to spend 2.5 days to assess the state of the field with regards to historical ecology in coastal British Columbia and Washington, determine what ecological and environmental time series are already available, and identify historical records that are ripe for resurveys later in 2020. Building upon this foundation, we will generate and begin to test hypotheses that can addressed using historical data. We will also begin to develop a manuscript that will synthesize patterns of ecological change, particularly in intertidal systems in our region.
Goals:
Compile a database of existing ecological and environmental data for BC and WA;
Establish ecological metrics (distribution, abundance, zonation, etc.) and species (mussels, kelps, urchins, etc.) that allow for meaningful interpretation of ecological patterns in light of documented environmental change;
Identify survey priorities to determine present-day values for sites with available historical (but not current) data;
Structure a manuscript or manuscripts on this topic, inclusive of a detailed outline along with some text and figures as appropriate.
